Curious if the Fort Collins market favors buyers or sellers right now? Months of supply is the simplest way to read the room. It tells you how long the current inventory would last if no new homes came on the market at today’s sales pace. If you understand it, you can price smarter, write stronger offers, and time your move with confidence.
In this guide, you’ll learn what months of supply means, how it is calculated, what the thresholds signal, and how Larimer County dynamics like CSU, job growth, and seasonality can shift the numbers. You’ll also get practical tips for buyers and sellers plus easy, hypothetical examples you can use today. Let’s dive in.
What months of supply means
Months of supply (also called months of inventory or absorption rate) estimates how many months it would take to sell the current active listings at the current sales pace if no new listings were added. In plain English, it is the market’s “shelf life.”
- Lower MOS means a tighter market and more competition for buyers.
- Higher MOS means a looser market and more negotiating room for buyers.
- Industry convention views about 6 months as roughly balanced.
How to calculate MOS
There are two common ways to present the same idea:
- MOS equals active listings as of a specific date divided by average monthly closed sales.
- Or, MOS equals active listings divided by total closed sales in the past X months, divided by X.
You must make a few choices when you calculate:
- Time window for sales: last 1, 3, 6, or 12 months. Short windows reflect recent momentum but can be noisy. A 12‑month average smooths seasonality but reacts more slowly.
- What counts as “active”: typically homes marked active in the MLS, not pending or under contract. Local MLS rules vary, so definitions matter.
- Segmentation: calculate separately by property type and price band because balance often differs by segment.
Fort Collins thresholds to know
Use these practical thresholds when interpreting the market in Fort Collins and Larimer County:
- Under 3 months: strong seller’s market, multiple offers are more common.
- 3 to 6 months: seller‑leaning to balanced, competition varies by segment.
- Around 6 months: balanced market.
- Over 6 months: buyer’s market, more price reductions and concessions.
Why MOS matters to you
MOS shapes what happens on price, time on market, and negotiations.
- Pricing: Low MOS supports stronger pricing and sometimes offers above list. High MOS adds downward pressure and favors price improvements or incentives.
- Time to contract: Low MOS usually means faster sales. High MOS can extend days on market.
- Terms and concessions: In low‑MOS areas, sellers often command cleaner offers. In high‑MOS areas, buyers can request more repairs, credits, or flexible timelines.
Fort Collins drivers behind MOS
Local supply and demand drivers can push MOS up or down even when national trends say otherwise.
- Colorado State University: Student enrollment and faculty and staff housing needs create steady demand, especially near campus and along transit corridors.
- Jobs and industry mix: Growth in high‑tech, craft brewing, healthcare, and education supports buyer demand. Commuting patterns to Boulder and Denver also play a role.
- Lifestyle and location: Proximity to Horsetooth Reservoir, the foothills, and regional recreation draws buyers who value Northern Colorado’s quality of life.
- Population and migration: Net migration into Northern Colorado has historically boosted household formation and demand.
- Investor and rental activity: Strong rental demand can influence for‑sale inventory in certain neighborhoods.
On the supply side:
- New construction and lot supply: The pace of single‑family and multifamily starts affects the flow of new listings. Permitting and lot availability matter.
- Zoning and infill policies: City and county policies shape where and how quickly new housing appears.
- Seasonality: You typically see more new listings in spring and summer and fewer in winter, which shifts MOS during the year.
- Price‑band divergence: Entry‑level homes often run tighter than higher‑priced segments. Neighborhoods can behave very differently.
Interpreting MOS by segment
Reading MOS at the city or county level is a starting point. To make decisions, narrow the lens:
- Property type: Single‑family detached versus condos or townhomes can track very differently.
- Price bands: Use bands that fit Fort Collins tiers, for example under $400,000, $400,000 to $700,000, and $700,000 and up.
- Neighborhood: Close‑in areas near CSU or popular trail access can show lower MOS than the citywide average, while niche or higher‑priced areas may run higher.
How to compute your snapshot
Here is a simple workflow you can follow or request from us:
Always label the as‑of date, the sales window you used, and the MLS definition of “active.”
What MOS means for buyers
Use MOS to guide your pace and terms:
- Low MOS area:
- Get fully pre‑approved before you tour.
- Rank must‑have features and be ready to move fast.
- Consider escalation clauses and cleaner terms if they align with your goals.
- Higher MOS area:
- Negotiate on price and closing costs.
- Ask for needed repairs and reasonable due diligence periods.
- Be patient, compare options, and leverage the slower pace.
What MOS means for sellers
Align your strategy with the supply picture:
- Low MOS area:
- Price competitively to encourage multiple offers.
- Prepare for quick showings and set clear offer timelines.
- Expect fewer concessions if the home is well‑prepared.
- Higher MOS area:
- Invest in staging, presentation, and accurate pricing.
- Offer buyer incentives when appropriate, like closing cost credits.
- Be flexible on timing and terms to widen your buyer pool.
Fort Collins caveats to keep in mind
A few nuances can change the read:
- Pending and contingent sales are not counted as closed. If many deals are pending, MOS can look higher than the lived experience.
- New construction listings may be handled differently across subdivisions and builders. Separate them when possible.
- Data revisions happen. Closed sales can update after initial reports. Always note your as‑of date and update cycle.
- Countywide MOS can hide hot pockets. Segment by neighborhood and price.
Hypothetical examples
- Example A, snapshot: If Fort Collins has 360 active single‑family listings today and the market averaged 60 closings per month over the last 3 months, MOS equals 360 divided by 60 which is 6 months. That reads as roughly balanced.
- Example B, seller’s market: If a neighborhood has 30 active listings but averaged 20 sales per month, MOS equals 1.5 months. Quick offers and multiple bids are likely.
- Example C, buyer’s market: If there are 200 active listings but only 20 sales per month, MOS equals 10 months. Buyers generally have more negotiating power.
Your next steps
If you are exploring Fort Collins, you will get the clearest picture by pairing MOS with days on market, list‑to‑sale ratios, and active inventory counts for your exact segment. Ask for a breakdown by property type and price band, then compare the last 12 months to the prior year to see trend and seasonality.
- Request a neighborhood‑level MOS snapshot with an as‑of date and 12‑month smoothing.
- Set up listing alerts for your target price band so you see supply shifts in real time.
- Review your plan every 30 to 60 days because MOS changes with the seasons.
When you want a data‑driven plan for timing, pricing, or offer strategy in Larimer County, connect with the local team that knows the neighborhoods and the numbers. Reach out to Bison Real Estate Group to get your custom MOS breakdown and a clear path forward.
FAQs
What is months of supply in real estate?
- Months of supply estimates how long it would take to sell today’s active listings at the current sales pace if no new homes were listed.
How does MOS signal buyer or seller advantage?
- Under 3 months typically favors sellers, around 6 months is balanced, and over 6 months tends to favor buyers in pricing and negotiations.
How often does MOS change in Fort Collins?
- MOS updates monthly and shifts with the seasons, so track a 12‑month trend for context and check your segment every 30 to 60 days.
Should I look at city, county, or neighborhood MOS?
- Use the smallest geography that fits your decision, ideally your neighborhood and price band, because countywide averages can hide hot or slow pockets.
Does MOS predict home prices in Larimer County?
- MOS is a supply indicator; persistently low MOS supports price increases and persistently high MOS suggests downward pressure, but rates and local demand also matter.
How do I calculate MOS for my price range?
- Count active listings in your price band, divide by average monthly sales for that band over your chosen window, and label the as‑of date and methodology.
